What changes at launch
Sales become the primary commercial outcome
Before launch, a wishlist is a useful proxy for future demand. After launch, the meaning changes: some outstanding wishlists are an old backlog awaiting the right moment, some are new demand, and some will leave through purchase or removal.
Old and new wishlist cohorts can have different purchase probabilities. Discounts, updates, festivals, review milestones, and other commercial events may reactivate different parts of the pool.
Stock and flow
The balance is one frame of a moving system
Opening outstanding wishlists + additions − purchases/conversions − deletions and other removals = closing outstanding wishlists.
Model terms
Keep stock, flows, and cohorts separate
- Stock metric
- Outstanding wishlists at one point in time.
- Flow metric
- Additions, purchases or conversions, deletions, and other removals during a period.
- Cohort metric
- The eventual and time-to-purchase behavior of wishlists acquired in a period or around an event.
- Depletion
- Reduction of an existing cohort through conversion or removal.
- Replenishment
- New post-launch wishlist demand entering the pool.
- Reactivation
- A commercial event causing older outstanding wishlists to purchase.
Worked example
A stable balance can contain healthy conversion and healthy replenishment
A game opens the week with 50,000 outstanding wishlists. It gains 2,400 new wishlists, while 1,800 purchase and 600 are deleted or otherwise removed. The closing balance is still 50,000.
| Component | Wishlists | Role |
|---|---|---|
| Opening balance | 50,000 | Stock at week start |
| Additions | +2,400 | Replenishment flow |
| Purchases/conversions | −1,800 | Depletion flow |
| Deletions/other removals | −600 | Depletion flow |
| Closing balance | 50,000 | Stock at week end |
Manual workflow
Reconcile the pool once per reporting period
- Record the opening outstanding balance.
- Export additions, purchases or conversions, and deletions for the same dates.
- Calculate the expected closing balance and compare it with the reported stock.
- Annotate discounts, updates, festivals, and other commercial events.
- Split by acquisition cohort when the available report supports it.
- Describe depletion, replenishment, and reactivation separately before judging health.
Interpretation limit
A growing balance is not automatically healthy
Growth may reflect strong replenishment, weak conversion, or both. A shrinking balance may reflect successful backlog conversion, weak acquisition, removals, or several effects at once. Compare component flows, sales, event timing, and cohorts before choosing an action.